Sunday, June 28, 2009

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Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Forex Broker Guide

Introduction

The following is a list of questions you may like to consider before opening an account. You can use this checklist to narrow down your selection of companies that fit your requirements. You may also wish to refer to the forex broker ratings page on this site to read about traders unique experiences with particular brokers.

The following links will also give you some background information on U.S. FCM's (Futures Commission Merchants).

1. Word of Mouth

  • What do other traders say about the broker?
  • What is their customer service like?

2. Customer Protection

  • Is the broker regulated?
  • What regulatory organisation are they registered with and what protections does it afford you?
  • Are client funds insured against fraud?
  • Are client funds insured against bankruptcy?

3. Execution

  • What business model do they operate? i.e. Are they a Market Maker[?], ECN[?] or no-dealing desk broker[?]?
  • How fast is their order execution?
  • Are orders manually or automatically executed? [?]
  • What is the maximum trade size before you have to request a quote?
  • Are all clients trades offset?

4. Spread [?]

  • How tight is the spread?
  • Is it fixed or variable?

5. Slippage [?]

  • How much slippage can be expected in normal and fast moving markets?

6. Margin [?]

  • What is the margin requirement? e.g. 0.25% margin = max 400:1 leverage [?]), 0.5% margin = max 200:1 leverage, 1% margin = max 100:1 leverage, 2% margin = max 50:1 leverage, etc.
  • Does the margin requirement change for different currency pairs or days of the week?
  • At what point will the broker issue a margin call?
  • Is it the same for standard and mini accounts? [?]

7. Commissions

  • Do they charge commissions? (Most market makers' commissions are built into the spread)

8. Rollover Policy [?]

  • Is there a minimum margin requirement in order to earn rollover interest?
  • What are the swap rates like for going long or short in a particular currency pair?
  • Are there any other conditions for earning rollover interest?

9. Trading Platform

  • How intuitive and functional is it to use?
  • Are there many disconnections during trading hours?
  • How reliable is it during fast moving markets and news announcements?
  • How many different currency pairs can you trade?
  • Do they offer an Application Programming Interface (API) to allow you to automate your trading system?
  • Does it offer any other special features? (e.g. One click dealing, trading from the chart, trailing stops, mobile trading etc.)

10. Trading Account

  • What is the minimum balance required to open an account?
  • What is the minimum trade size?
  • Can you adjust the standard lot size traded? [?]
  • Can you earn interest on the unused margin balance in your account?

Essential Elements of a Successful Trader

Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.

You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.

However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.

Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.

Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.

The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.

For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.

The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).

So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.

Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?

If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.

Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus

Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.

To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.

Friday, June 26, 2009

What is Forex?

FOREX - the foreign exchange market or currency market or Forex is the market where one currency is traded for another. It is one of the largest markets in the world.

Some of the participants in this market are simply seeking to exchange a foreign currency for their own, like multinational corporations which must pay wages and other expenses in different nations than they sell products in. However, a large part of the market is made up of currency traders, who speculate on movements in exchange rates, much like others would speculate on movements of stock prices. Currency traders try to take advantage of even small fluctuations in exchange rates.

In the foreign exchange market there is little or no 'inside information'. Exchange rate fluctuations are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as anticipations on global macroeconomic conditions. Significant news is released publicly so, at least in theory, everyone in the world receives the same news at the same time.

Currencies are traded against one another. Each pair of currencies thus constitutes an individual product and is traditionally noted XXX/YYY, where YYY is the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currency into which the price of one unit of XXX currency is expressed. For instance, EUR/USD is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, as in 1 euro = 1.2045 dollar.

Unlike stocks and futures exchange, foreign exchange is indeed an interbank, over-the-counter (OTC) market which means there is no single universal exchange for specific currency pair. The foreign exchange market operates 24 hours per day throughout the week between individuals with forex brokers, brokers with banks, and banks with banks. If the European session is ended the Asian session or US session will start, so all world currencies can be continually in trade. Traders can react to news when it breaks, rather than waiting for the market to open, as is the case with most other markets.

Average daily international foreign exchange trading volume was $1.9 trillion in April 2004 according to the BIS study.

Like any market there is a bid/offer spread (difference between buying price and selling price). On major currency crosses, the difference between the price at which a market maker will sell ("ask", or "offer") to a wholesale customer and the price at which the same market-maker will buy ("bid") from the same wholesale customer is minimal, usually only 1 or 2 pips. In the EUR/USD price of 1.4238 a pip would be the '8' at the end. So the bid/ask quote of EUR/USD might be 1.4238/1.4239.

This, of course, does not apply to retail customers. Most individual currency speculators will trade using a broker which will typically have a spread marked up to say 3-20 pips (so in our example 1.4237/1.4239 or 1.423/1.425). The broker will give their clients often huge amounts of margin, thereby facilitating clients spending more money on the bid/ask spread. The brokers are not regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (since they do not sell securities), so they are not bound by the same margin limits as stock brokerages. They do not typically charge margin interest, however since currency trades must be settled in 2 days, they will "resettle" open positions (again collecting the bid/ask spread).

Individual currency speculators can work during the day and trade in the evenings, taking advantage of the market's 24 hours long trading day.

Forex FAQ

What is FOREX?
You can read the detailed answer in the separate section of the site — "What is Forex?".

How can I start trading Forex?
You'll need to register a trading account with a Forex broker, such as Marketiva. Then you can begin using their Forex client program to buy and sell currencies. This will take less than 5 minutes of your time!

Who owns Forex and where is it located?
It's not owned by anyone in particular. Forex is an Interbank market, meaning that it's transactions are conducted only between two participants - seller and the buyer. So as long as existing banking system will exist, Forex will be here. It's not connected to any specific country or government organization.

What the working hours of Forex market?
Forex market is open from 22:00 GMT Sunday (opening of Australia trading session) till 22:00 GMT Friday (closing of USA trading session).

What is margin?
Margin is money you need to have in your broker account to secure your open position. Different brokers require different amount of margin money to keep your positions open.

What are the "long" and "short" positions?
Long position is a "buy" position, meaning that this position will be in profit if price goes up.
Short position is a "sell" position, meaning that this position will be in profit if price goes down.

What is the best Forex trading strategy?
There is none. You should constantly develop your own strategies for every possible market situation, if you want to be in profit. Specific strategies can only be good for a certain period of time and for certain currency pairs.

How much money I need to start trading Forex?
With Marketiva you can start trading Forex with as little as $1. Usually, the minimum amount varies from $100 to $10,000 ($100,000 and more for Interbank trading).

I can't (or don't want to) install any Forex trading software on my computer. Can I still trade Forex?
If you don't want (or it is not possible) to install new software to start trading Forex then a good option for you would be using web based trading platform. You can browse our Forex brokers list to find those which support such platform. Here are those brokers which have web based trading options: Easy Forex, ForexYard, Oanda, Saxo Bank, ACM, Interactive Brokers.

I've downloaded the expert advisor for MetaTrader platform but I don't know how to install it. What should I do?
You can read the MetaTrader Expert Advisors User's Tutorial to find out how to intstall those expert advisors.

I've downloaded a custom indicator for MetaTrader platform but I don't know how to install it. What should I do?
You can read the MetaTrader Indicators User's Tutorial to find out how to intstall those indicators.

Forex Newsletter

Subscribe to the EarnForex newsletter to get the regular monthly updates on the Forex market and this site. With each newsletter issue you will get the monthly events summary of each Forex traded currency, analysis of the fundamental market situation, examples of my real trades for the month and the important site updates including new ebooks, brokers and expert advisors.

Subscription to this newsletter is completely free and is very easy. Your private data is completely secure and won’t be sold or traded. The newsletter will be sent out only in text format. This will ensure that you will be always able to read it from anywhere. To subscribe, please, fill and submit the following form and then click on the confirmation link in the e-mail message, that you will receive in a few minutes.

Forex for Dummies

Forex Basics

If you've already read the "What is Forex?" section then you should know what Forex market is and what it is all about. If not, please, do it. There are five essential aspects of foreign currency market a beginner trader (and an old one as well) should be aware of:

  • Forex Fundamental Analysis
  • Forex Technical Analysis
  • Money Management
  • Forex Trading Psychology
  • Forex Brokerage

Understanding and mastering these sides of trading are crucial to organize your Forex trading experience.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the process of market analysis which is done regarding only "real" events and macroeconomic data which is related to the traded currencies. Fundamental analysis is used not only in Forex but can be a part of any financial planning or forecasting. Concepts that are part of Forex fundamental analysis: overnight interest rates, central banks meetings and decisions, any macroeconomic news, global industrial, economical, political and weather news. Fundamental analysis is the most natural way of making Forex market forecasts. In theory, it alone should work perfectly, but in practice it is often used in pair with technical analysis. Recommended e-books on Forex fundamental analysis:

Forex Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the process of market analysis that relies only on market data numbers - quotes, charts, simple and complex indicators, volume of supply and demand, past market data, etc. The main idea behind Forex technical analysis is the postulate of functional dependence of the future market technical data on the past market technical data. As well as with fundamental analysis, technical analysis is believed to be self-sufficient and you can use only it to successfully trade Forex. In practice, both analysis methods are used. Recommended e-books on Forex fundamental analysis are:

Money Management in Forex

Even if you master every possible method of market analysis and will make very accurate predictions for future Forex market behavior, you won't make any money without a proper money management strategy. Money management in Forex (as well as in other financial markets) is a complex set of rules which you develop to fit your own trading style and amount of money you have for trading. Money management play very important role in getting profits out of Forex; do not underestimate it. To get more information on money management you can read these books:

Forex Trading Psychology

While learning a lot about market analysis and money management is an obvious and necessary step to be a successful Forex traders, you also need to master your emotions to keep your trading performance under strict control of mind and intuition. Controlling your emotions in Forex trading is often a balancing between greed and cautiousness. Almost any known psychology practices and techniques can work for Forex traders to help them keep to their trading strategies rather to their spontaneous emotions. Problems you'll have to deal while being a professional Forex trader:

  • Your greed
  • Overtrading
  • Lack of discipline
  • Lack of confidence
  • Blind following others' forecasts

These are very professional books on psychology written specially for financial traders:

Forex Brokerage

Every Forex trader like any other professional needs tools to trade. One of these tools, which is vital to be in market, is a Forex broker and specifically for Internet - on-line Forex broker - a company which will provide real-time market information to trader and bring his orders to Forex market. While choosing a right Forex broker things to look for are the following:

  • Being a professional company you can trust
  • Provide you with real-time quotes
  • Execute your orders fast and accurately
  • Don't take a lot of commissions
  • Support the withdraw/deposit methods that you can use

For beginning Forex traders I recommend these four brokerage companies that are probably the best Forex brokers to start with:

  • FXOpen — one of the most popular and progressive brokers with MetaTrader platform and comfortable trading conditions for all kind of traders.
  • InstaForex — a reputable MetaTrader 4 brokers, allows Islamic Forex trading accounts, while you can deposit and withdraw money via WebMoney.
  • FXcast — good because you can start trading Forex with as little as 10$, use MetaTrader 4 platform and the dozoen of various deposit and withdraw methods, including WebMoney, e-Bullion and wire transfer.
  • LiteForex — broker that supports MetaTrader 4 Forex trading platform and doesn't require a lot of money to start with.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Forex Scalping Strategy

Forex scalping is the art of using high leverage and a large number of short term trades to steadily increase an account. Usually, only 1 to 5 pips are targeted for each trade. This type of trading appeals greatly to day traders and those looking to minimize the risk involved in trading currencies. Next to money management, "risk control" is the single most important trait to a surviving (and thriving) currency trader. The small amount of time that is spent in the market limits much of the risk in exposure in comparison to a longer term system. Also, the freedom involved in a speedy Forex scalping system in such a liquid market is a "magnet" that drives many traders from other markets to try their hand in currency. A disciplined and steady scalper could seamlessly double or triple an account, and spend only a fraction of the time in the market as a common day trader.

Forex Scalping - The Problem

Though Forex scalping may seem like a preverbal "holy grail" at first glance, there are still many unseen hurdles that surround the controversial method of trading. If you do wish to add scalping to your trading toolbox, it is extremely important to pick a broker who can support a scalpers's system. You will quickly find that many brokers do not allow scalp trading, as the method of quickly entering and exiting trades may actually cause the broker to lose money at the dealing desk. Forex scalping also does not give the broker a means to trade against their clients which is a way of money making for them. Out of the hundreds of online Forex brokers, only a handful support scalping. It is a very thin line between scalping and short term trading. Generally if you hold trades for a minute or less, you may have problems with brokers. They could warn you and then if you continue shut down your account. However, if you trade in minutes or more, most likely you will not have problems with dealing desk brokers. Non dealing desk (ECN) brokers allow scalping where you can hold a position for seconds however the minimum to open an account is higher ($2,000 and above).

Forex Scalping Strategy

Effective Forex scalping strategies take advantage of extremely slight price fluctuations (sometimes only 1-3 pips) many times in order to steadily build an account. Because of the smaller number of pips gained per trade, larger than normal leverages play a key role in a successful Forex scalping strategy. By leveraging much more than a standard day trader in a liquid environment, a very skilled scalp trader is able to make just as much money as the day trader in a shorter period of time. However, this is an obvious double-edged sword. The market can just as easily move against you on a high leverage, which could produce substantial blows to your account.

Also, it is important to take into consideration the physical and mental speed of a trader who will only stay in the market for seconds to minutes. Executing a scalping strategy by hand can be extremely difficult considering the quick amount of time you must be in and out of the market for your strategy to be affective. Many successful Forex scalping strategies are built to be automated; the rules to the system are coded into a trading platform to automatically perform scalp trades around the clock. Though it is completely possible to trade a Forex scalping strategy manually, the majority of today's traders would agree that automating the process based on a set of rules would be the best way to ensure speed and reliability. When choosing a platform to automate your scalp strategy, it is extremely important to stick with those platforms that allow the execution of your system on every tick (such as MetaTrader 4). This ensures that your entrances and exits will be on a per-tick basis, and will give you a much higher probable rate of success than those platforms who will execute your code more periodically.

To understand the full challenge of scalping as a trading style, consider this: hard work and small gains accumulated over a decent period of time could easily be wiped out with one large loss. Finding a balance between profit levels and size of acceptable losses presents the most difficult challenge to scalpers' strategy.

Forex scalping can be a good method of growing a managed Forex account quickly, but should not be looked at as the "holy grail" of trading. Most brokers do not support scalping, and a consistently profitable Forex scalping strategy can be very difficult to engineer. However, if much time and effort is spent in system optimization and setting up a good relationship with a scalp supporting broker, the benefits could be well worth the time spent.

Futures and Options

1: Forex Options Tips - Tips to Increase Profits and Decrease Risk!
If you have never considered sing Forex Options then you should. They can simply overcome the major problem most Forex traders face - getting stopped out by short term volatility...

2: Forex Options Market Overview
Forex option trading has emerged as an alternative investment vehicle for many traders and investors. As an investment tool, forex option trading provides both large and small investors with greater flexibility when determining the appropriate forex trading and hedging strategies to implement. With the plethora of real-time financial data and forex option trading software available to most investors through the internet, today's forex option market now includes an increasingly large number of individuals and corporations who are speculating and/or hedging foreign currency exposure via telephone or online forex trading platforms.

3: Successful Options Trading Strategies
When it comes to giving people the hope of becoming a millionaire overnight, the stock market excels. Every day we see evidence of stocks that have flown upwards as if they had wings, providing investors with a windfall of profits. It's inevitable that catching one of those stocks just before it takes off is an exciting possibility, inspiring the beginning trader to take the plunge.

Finance

1: Are Traditional Banks Better Than Internet Banking?
With the ubiquitous internet as it is today, you have the convenience of doing a variety of banking transactions online from the comfort of your home, in your office or while traveling. The Inernet as an over-the-top technological invention has so caused life to become easier for everyone including the business community, housewives, students and professionals. Notwithstanding, this new communication phenomenon people have not stopped patronizing the usual off line banks . The conventional banks are still in business with those people who do not trust the safety of online banking and would rather bank off line where they feel the highest level comfort and security.

2: Online Trading, an Option for World Trade
Online business can often scratch trading internationally with very low effort. The cyberspace has changed things. Your web site can be your store window in several number of countries. You do not need a physical front in every territory to trade there.

3: Online Trading, an Option for Transnational Trade
Online business can frequently begin trading internationally with very small effort. The cyberspace has metamorphosed matters. Your website can be your store window in some number of nations. You do not need a physical front in each territory to sell there.

4: Last Bank Standing - The Wall Street Mega-Crash
Today's Congress is ignoring its role as the primary creative force in today's problems. This transfusion is needed because: bad laws have obscured the values on financial institution balance sheets, and have created a clot in the credit arteries that keep the economy alive.

5: Amazon's Best Investment Book Reviews: Have You Been Brainwashed?
Big publishers want to sell already big names; discovering new ones is not in their wheelhouse. Are they responsible for the problems in the financial markets? Of course not, but they do have a perverse, if indirect, impact--- they contribute to the brainwashing.

6: Car Finance Basics
Shop around for a good car finance that is flexible for all situations online before going into a car dealership so that you are prepared with money in hand in order to make sure that the car you are buying is yours and not the dealers.

7: Different Ways of Debt Consolidation
Consulting with EzConsolidation.com could be the best solution that any person in debt can find for them to ensure a bright financial future. One fixed monthly payment on a strict schedule can allow you to budget.

8: Taking Control of Your Credit
You're found the house of your dreams, made an offer and now it's time to head on down to the bank. What goes on in that visit will determine if you're able to make your dream become a reality. If so, at what price will it cost you?

9: Bad Credit Cash Advance Payday Loans in UK
Face your urgent financial needs with Bad Credit Payday Loans without any credit check. People with bad credit history or poor credit score can improve their credit rating by applying bad credit payday loan to meet their cash requirement.

10: Best Way to Consolidate All of Your Debt
ezConsolidation.com is an online debt consolidation service provider that helps you save money by reducing your interest rates, lowering your monthly payments and having only one payment per month.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Reading Forex Broker Reviews

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If you are considering hiring a forex broker, one of the many ways in which you can possibly learn about their credibility is by means of forex broker reviews. These things can be found just about anywhere in the internet. You just need a search engine where you can place these keywords and then wait for the results to show up. Reviews on forex brokers can give you the following benefits:


1. Credibility - Reputation is an important thing when it comes to hiring forex brokers. Although you would not really use their services in terms of marketing yourself or your business, you need to make sure that you are not partnering with a run off the mill type of broker who cannot provide you with results. You also need to have someone whom you can trust enough with your transactions and even some vital confidential business information.


2. Network - The main reason you would be hiring a forex broker is to expand your business. Through online forex reviews, you can easily spot the industry names when it comes to forex brokering. You will know who's who in the trade and the people who have made quite a number of following and transactions throughout the span of their career.


3. Expertise - Reviews about forex brokers would definitely dissect the credentials of the person in discussion. After all, that's what reviews are for. It aims to discuss the pros and cons when it comes to specific subjects in terms of its features. Reviews about forex brokers help give you a better understanding of the professionals alongside their field of expertise and so you can identify if their expertise fits well with your business.


But given these benefits, you should also place careful observance when reading forex broker reviews. Make sure you choose those that are reputable enough and have been written by professionals themselves. Reviews are a combination of opinion and actual experience.


In finding the best reviews when it comes to forex brokers, here are some important points you would need to consider:


a. Who wrote the review? - It would be great to read reviews coming from forex professionals themselves. Some of them put up their reviews in their very own website and write them down in the form of a blog. This way, it's easier and much more inviting to read. You can also try searching for such articles on forex sites which also has a feature on the authors themselves.


b. When was the review created? - Forex is a very dynamic business. Make sure you only read reviews that are updated. The latest you can probably consider is a year before the present day. Unless of course you wanted to unearth issues and questionable stories associated with the forex broker, then feel free to delve deeper in your research.


c. What affiliations does the writer have? - This helps establish the fact that the person is indeed an expert reliable enough to write forex broker reviews. Industry associations tell you much especially in terms of the network that the review author has.

Dealing With Online Forex Brokers

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Online forex brokers can turn out to be your competitive advantage in the line of foreign currency trading. They are deemed as a valuable asset especially if you wanted to enter into a high stakes game of currency trading. Because of these, forex brokers are highly esteemed in the market and there are some misconceptions that have also been formed around them. With the industry booming, it's about time that some of those misconceptions be straightened out once and for all.


The Truth behind Trading with Brokers


Most of the time, we feel way too assured for our own good when we get the services of online forex brokers. We tend to feel that we are in the hands of experts so all we have to do is sit back and relax as they do all the needed work for us. So when things don't turn out quite the way we expect them to, we tend to put all the blame on the brokers. Sometimes we even feel cheated that we are paying for nothing. But the truth is that we are also to blame for the losses we incur.


All forex brokers know that in the trading arena, losses amounting to 95% are but a common thing. This is why most of them choose to abide by the rules of day trading. Exchanging currencies are very dynamic and at the end of the day, all your broker ever really does is to provide you with leads. The hand that still makes all the vital decisions is yours and not your broker.


Brokers and Offered Leverage


One of the selling points used by most forex brokers is the leverage they offer. Leverage is the profits that you can be promised by relying on just one forex broker alone. Some even go as far as giving 300:1 and unfortunately some people take the bait. In truth, 20:1 is the maximum that brokers can handle and assure you with. It's easy to believe that they can do it with a spectrum of trading methods but at the end of the day, keep in mind that these brokers are human too. They can only do so much to cover that much and also consider the fact that you may not be their only client.


Listening to Your Forex Broker


One of the great offers that a forex broker can perhaps give you as an extra benefit is their word of advice. You would especially appreciate this if you are new in the game. But the thing is, you should not swallow every piece of advice that your forex broker will give you. Online forex brokers are hired to help you find opportunities but they should never be the ones made to handle the course of your business. At the end of the day, you should still listen to your own gut feel and instincts.


Also, you should never buy most of the things that your forex broker tells you out of the context of work. As much as possible, keep your relationship at a professional level.

Choosing the Best Professional Forex Brokers

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If you are thinking of getting in touch with USA forex brokers, there are some important factors you need to consider. It's actually not that tough to find one considering there are lots of these professionals out in the market today. The real challenge however is finding someone who can really bring you results and assure that you are going to get quality services out of your investment. Bear in mind that forex brokers' rates vary accordingly and they may turn out to be a bit pricey.


The reason why it is important to hire a forex broker that specifically trades in the US dollar currency is that it gives you exposure to experiential and technical aspects. The US currency is one of the most widely used trading money in the market today. It's like the base where other currencies peg their rates at so when the US dollar fluctuates, it tends to change the course of the trading market as well. Liquidity is something that you must expect when it comes to the trading game.


Here are some important points you might need to consider when it comes to choosing among USA forex brokers.


1. Is the forex broker duly regulated? - The US bank and its related financial agencies have a say on the players in the forex market. Therefore it is important that you get in touch with these types of people. The great thing about using forex brokers who are regulated is that they are quite meticulous with their process. They need to do this because aside from liaising with you and their business spread partners, they also need to submit their financial standing and reports to regulating authorities. This way, you are assured that you are getting in touch with reliable people with a solid reputation.


2. Be the one to specify your trading platform - Although forex brokers are known to employ their own trading platforms, it would still be best if you are the one who will be giving directions for this system. Your trading platform should depend on the amount of time you can devote on the project and your work system. There are many different kinds of trading systems which you can use. You can either choose to have your trading run on autopilot, you may want to purchase a licensed trading software, or simply log online to an open source trading network. If you are not yet familiar with these things then you can also ask the expertise of forex brokers to help you choose the platform that would suit you best.


3. Trading methods used - Aside from the trading platform being used, you should also delve deeper into the specifics of the trading methods being used by your preferred forex broker. Here is where things such as spread, funds safety, and fractional trading would come into picture. All of these key ingredients to facilitate your forex business.


Do not let yourself be overwhelmed with having plenty of choices for USA forex brokers. Make sure you trim them down to qualified individuals whom you feel comfortable to work with.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Day Trading Indicators and Indicator Trading

Did You Begin Day Trading As An Indicator Only Trader?

Did you start day trading after buying a book on technical analysis, and getting a charting program - probably a free one that you found online - in order to save money? While reading your book you learned about trading indicators which could ’predict’ price movement, and what do you know, the ’best’ indicators were actually included in your free charting program - let the games begin.

Now that you have all the day trading tools that are necessary, the book for education AND the free charting program with those ’best’ day trading indicators, you now need a day trading plan so you can decide which ones of those ’magic’ day trading indicators you are supposed to use. This really is a great book, besides telling you how to day trade using indicators to ’predict’ price - it also said that you need a trading plan to day trade.

So what should this plan be? The book told you about trend following using an indicator called macd, and it also told you how it was possible to pick the top or bottoms using an indicator called stochastic; my guess is that you picked the stochastic indicator to start your day trading - this must be the ’best of the best’ since this indicator was going to ensure you of entering your trades with the ’best’ price. Amazing, simply amazing how easy this day trading stuff really is. In fact, why even bother taking the trades, each time your indicators give a signal - just call up your broker and tell him to stick $100 in your account.

My book was Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets. My charting program was TradeStation with an eSignal fm receiver; that was the one that if you hung the antennae wires just right, and you put enough foil on the tips, you might even get quotes. I had sold a business before I started trading so I did have some capital - isn’t that how everyone gets into trading, you either sell a business or you lose your job? My indicator was the macd as I had decided that I was going to be a ’trend follower’ instead of a ’top-bottom picker’. I also decided that I was going to be ’extra’ clever, if one indicator was good than two indicators must be better, so I added a 20 period moving average. My first trade was a winner, then after many months of extensive therapy, I was finally able to forget the next twelve months - ahhh the memories Æ’؛

Learning To Day Trading - The Learning Progression

Beginning to day trade, or learning to day trade, as an indicator trader is very typical. This is also logical when you consider - HOW are you supposed to initially learn how to trade? Trading indicators are available to anyone who has a charting program, and simply using line crosses, or histogram color changes, provide ’easy’ signals to understand. If you will also take the time to learn the arithmetic behind your indicators, as well as learning what each indicator is specifically intended to do, not only is this a logical way to begin, it is also a good ’step’ in your learning progression - understanding the WHAT you are doing, instead of attempting to create ’canned’ indicator only trading systems, without any regard as to WHY you are trading this way.

This does become one of the ’sticking’ points in your learning progression, as you come to find out that you are unable to profitably trade indicators as signals only - now what? Now what - you ’can’t’ develop your own indicators, so you start doing google searches for day trading indicators and start buying your ’collection’ - they don’t ’work’ either. Now what - you buy a mechanical trading system - what does hypothetical results may not be indicative of real trading or future results mean? Now what - you start subscribing to signal services OR you start joining the ’latest and greatest’ chat room - am I really the only person using the signals who isn’t profitable?

Now what - you never learn how to trade.

I began trading as an indicator trader, and I did try to learn everything that I could about the various indicators, as well as trying to combine indicators that were consistent with how I wanted to trade - I just could never develop a mechanical day trading system from what was available to me. I read a couple more books that didn’t really help me, so I then started looking for someone who could teach me. From what I now know about gurus -vs- teachers, I am very lucky that I got involved with a money manager-trader who taught me a tremendous amount, but I still couldn’t get profitable, in part because there was also ’pressure’ to learn how to trade using real money. As well, any discussions or thoughts about trading psychology and the issues involved, especially to beginning traders, was non-existent.

Now what - learning but losing - I stopped trading. Learning to trading using real money, and ’scoffing’ at trading psychology as simply individual weakness, really was something that I now regard as misinformation. I always mention this as I now feel that this cost me as much as a year of time, and was very close to costing me my trading future, as stopped trading was VERY close to quitting trading. How can’t trading psychology be real to a beginner, when you consider that you are risking losing money at a very fast pace as a day trader, and when you further consider that you are also doing this when you really don’t know what you are doing - this is NOT by definition being weak. And if trading psychology is real, how are you going to learn to make ’good’ trading habits with real money while you are fighting the implications?

Now what - not trading and not ready [quite] to quit - still studying and searching.

Probably the single most important ’thing’ that got me to a next step in learning how to trade, was the concept of a trading setup, and that a setup and a signal were not the same. This was extremely meaningful to me, as it also led to an understanding of how to better use trading indicators for the information that they can provide, but not to use them as trading signals - in essence I began learning about trading method where discretion could be consistently applied -vs- trading system that was mechanical and arithmetic rules.

Traders who are indicator only traders, are also what I refer to right side only traders, that is they are always looking at the right side of their charts for an indicator signal. BUT what about the left side of the chart, what about price and patterns, what about market conditions - WHAT about the relevant ’things’ that are ’moving’ price, instead of indicators only as an arithmetic derivative of price, and thus, one that is dependant on the time frame that you have chosen to trade from? These ’thoughts’, along with the concept of trade setup, became instrumental in the development of a trading method, and how I came to turning my trading around.

When I think about the steps in my learning progression - I would list them as follows:

2/95 - 6/96 indicators only teaching service that included signals learning to trading with real money and trading psychology issues stop trading

6/96 - 3/97 understanding of trading psychology issues learning about trading setups concept trading method -vs- trading system trade setup - trade trigger are not the same method development understand the importance of the left side of the chart and what is happening ’across’ the chart related trading setups and how/when they triggered indicators + pattern indicators + pattern + price indicators + pattern + price + market conditions

3/97 - 11/97 able to paper trade profitably able to real money trade profitably able to trade for a living

Indicator Only Day Trader - Setup Including Indicators Method Day Trader

I have attempted to discuss the way I started day trading, and the way I think many-most traders typically begin. Along with this, I have pointed various issues and problems that I had - those regarding how to learn to trade, and then progressing into a profitable trader. My experiences have been both personal, as well as those of many traders that I have worked with over the last 8-9 years through Tactical Trading - that a very large number of these problems are due to day trading only with indicators, the specific indicators used, along with trying to turn these indicators into a mechanical trading system. This is not to say that this can’t be done - I simply couldn’t do it. However, I would strongly suggest that anyone who is in the early stages of day trading, or struggling with their day trading, consider these things that have been discussed.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Achieving Trading Perfection

Achieving Trading Perfection - Trade quality, not quantity. Take the best of the best. Get the big picture. If you haven’t previously come across such advice, or if you have and are not following it, it is time that you take these words to heart. But how?

Trade selection and adequate planning go hand in hand. This is where most would-be professional traders miss the boat.

Much more money is made as a result of proper planning than from sitting and trading everything that comes along or "looks" good.

It’s difficult to fully understand why people think they have to trade so much. It’s difficult to truly grasp why people think that they have to take as many trades as they do.

Just the opposite is true. There is a correct approach to each and every trade. That is what achieving perfection is all about.

It all starts with proper management: planning, organizing, delegating, directing, and controlling.

These facets of management must be woven together into your trading; they do overlap.

Although planning is the major management function involved in achieving perfection, you can’t possibly plan well unless you are organized to do so.

You must have your tools at hand: your trading software, your data, the proper equipment. All of the rudiments for planning must be in place, which in itself is a part of organizing.

You must be physically fit when you plan: well nourished, properly exercised, well rested and mentally alert - all part of having your life organized, all part of achieving perfection as a trader.

To be a winning trader, you have to be among the best. There can be no middle ground. There are only winners and losers, and to be a winner you have to be a champion. And, just like any champion, you must have discipline, self-control, and a willingness to train, train, train.

There are no runners-up in trading, you either get the gold or you give the gold. Often, while others are busy going to parties or watching sports events, you are busy poring over charts, studying, thinking, planning. When others are listening to music or watching TV, you are busy practicing your trading, practicing trade selection, working hard to become a more astute trader.

Part of achieving perfection involves the diligent study of charts. The data, as presented on your screen and preserved as charts, are, for the most part, all you have for making trading decisions. They are a picture, a visualization of what is taking place in the reality of the market. Your job in achieving perfection and becoming an adequate trader is to picture and imagine in your mind what makes prices move and form the way they do. Ask yourself, "How does what I see in front of me relate to the supply and demand for the underlying?" Ask yourself, "Is what I am seeing on the chart even related to supply and demand, or is what I am seeing related to an engineered move by some insider or market mover?"

Supply and demand are not what makes prices move or fail to move most of the time. The sooner you realize that fact, the better off you will be. Markets are engineered, manipulated ¾ you need to know that.

But there’s more to a chart than merely price patterns. Reflected in the chart are the emotional reactions of human beings. Reactions to rumors and news; to national and world events; to government reports - these, too, are on the charts.

You might say that price movement, or the lack thereof, is the net effect of all the perceptions of all the traders who are participating in the market for a particular futures.

There is something else on the charts, something that too few take into account. That something is the manipulations from and by the insiders, the market movers, and by commercials holding large inventories of the underlying you are attempting to trade.

In achieving perfection as a trader, you must train yourself to look for evidence of any and all of these things as you study your charts. It is the cumulative action of all perceptions which causes patterns to form on a price chart.

You must learn to look for the truths in the markets. There are certain truths which are self-evident; they are always true. For instance, take the phenomenon of a breakout. When prices break out, no one can change the fact that they did break out. It is a fact and it is true. The breakout may turn out to be a "false" breakout, but nevertheless it is a breakout. As part of achieving perfection in your trade selection skills, you have to learn to tell which breakouts are most likely true breakouts, and which ones are most likely false. How can you know? By the price patterns on the chart.

And what about trend? Your job in achieving perfection as a trader is to master how to trade a trend. A trend is a trend, is a trend. It is a trend until the end, and part of your job is to know when a market is not trending.

The trend is the trend while it lasts. While a market is trending it is telling the truth. The trend can change, but the truth is the truth. If prices are rising, the trend is up. If prices are falling, the trend is down. The truth can be found in the trend. It is an immutable fact. You are to learn to make my money by trading with the trend. You are to learn what constitutes a trend. You have to learn to spot trends early so that you can make the most out of the market while it is trending. Your job in achieving perfection as a trader is to learn to recognize when a trend will most likely begin, and just as important, to learn to be even more adept at deciphering when a trend is ending.

In achieving perfection, you must learn to recognize "your" trade(s), and to take only "your" trades. Trade the formations and patterns that you can easily recognize and identify.

You must learn to trade using tips and tricks that you are shown and to accumulate and keep a collection of techniques that result in the selection of high probability trades.

How are you to do all this? Practice, practice, PRACTICE. Practice recognition of congestion areas. Practice recognition of high probability breakouts. Practice trend recognition. Practice and more practice. Just like anyone who wants to achieve perfection at anything, there must be total dedication, study, practice and more practice. You are to become a trading virtuoso. You are to practice, yet always realizing that you will never attain true perfection, that there is always room for improvement. There is usually a way to refine: ways that you can do things better, more efficiently, and with greater speed and fine

Essential Elements of a Successful Trader

Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.

You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.

However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you’re taking.

Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.

Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.

The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.

For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a ’hold on until it comes back’ strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.

The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).

So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.

Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?

If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.

Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus

Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.

To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.

Questions From Email Inbox

Thank you for inviting people to learn from your experience. I found that to be very generous. I was hoping you may be able to shed little light on just how to go about finding the right currency pairs to buy.

This is where charting software will make it self-evident for you to know what pairs are ’trending’. Technical analysis using charting software: Elliott Wave, Retracements, Fibronacci patterns, short term trending, etc. Good charting software is invaluable! Look at it as one of your ’costs of doing business’.

I have just begun learning how the FOREX works. There are so few opportunities for the lower economic class to achieve financial independence.

It took us a full year to learn to trade forex to achieve consistent profits, but well worth the time and effort. Forex trading can be the great leveler of the self-investor playing field. I and we believe that with dedication to sound, risk-management trading methods you can succeed.

I’m trying to build a financial base, but I just can’t find a door in. Is it possible for me to participate directly in the FOREX with smaller amounts - like $1000?

Beginning with $1K. is more of a challenge and more of a risk (but not impossible). $1K represents 1 lot in Forex Trading, and that is the minimum (leveraged) trade that can be made. Perhaps that $1K would be better spent on trading education?

I have participated in Forex ’Games’ and other types of online investments that claim to be investing in Foreign Currency (among other things), with returns of 50% a month and more. I actually did get paid. Opinions please?

We strongly urge you to resist any further temptation to send your money away to an investment-type pool (by this we mean do not send your money away to be under someone else’s control and in someone else’s account). It is unjustified risk, there are much better ways to begin to experience profits from forex trading. Many such online investments have totally disappeared into the Internet ethers from which they came. Typically these investments give no contact information, claiming to be ’offshore’, ’for privacy reasons’. They last a few months, their bulletin boards or email newsletters extoll their climbing numbers of ’members’ and pay-outs, then without warning their site goes off-line forever. And you never knew who they were that disappeared with your trust and your money or e-gold.

How do you forecast which currency is next in line to increase?

It is not so much that you want to know when any one currency is going up. You can make profits whether a currency is going up (buy), or down (sell). All Currencies are continually rising and falling relative to other currencies, and forex trading is in fact trading one currency relative to another. Good trading opportunities are always present when you know how to recognize them. Technical analysis using charting software, market sentiment, experience will show you which currencies to pair to trade. Forex Trading is a skill of identifying (and acting on) the probabilities.

How do you choose when to rollover or close positions?

Technical analysis using charting software that (when you learn how to identify what you are seeing) depicts resistance levels (how high it will likely rise to) or support levels (how low it will likely stop dropping at). This is helpful for determining whether to rollover the trade for a bigger forecasted profit the next day. However, a rollover does have additional clearinghouse fees attached. Quick in-and-out trades are closed intentionally with the goal of a smaller profit gain (such as a 4 pip profit).

For example, Beginners, who are learning to read their charts, can do very well closing positions at whatever point they have gained +4 pips profit. This represents a $40. profit (in this example we are trading 1 lot Euro/USD, so 1 pip equals $10.). A $40./4 pip gain is a relatively small move on the chart and may not seem impressive until you consider that If you do this successfully 4 times a day you have made $160. profit. With 4 such daily trades in a four day trading week you will have made $640. (consider also that this is even without the magic of compounding). We leave the monthly and yearly calculations to you.

What indicators do you utilize?

We have tried everything we could ever get our hands on. Over time we have selected the ones that are most consistent and well suited to our trading style. See our review of different indicator tools in Tools of the Trade. You will develop your own trading style (best times of day, favorite currency pairs, best instinctual moving-average chart pattern etc.). But experience with basic technical analysis using charting software is always the starting point. Then you add forex forecasting email subscriptions, Allan Greenspan’s body language (no kidding) etc.

Are there any real time & reliable direct (commission free) market maker entry sites online?

Yes. It is not necessary to pay a clearinghouse (also known as a market maker, or forex brokerage house) an additional ’commission’ for self-trading using their platform/services. They are usually compensated in the ’spread’ between the buy price and sel

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Stock Trading Trading for Beginners Articles by the same author * Author: Bob Kleyla * Looking for Cup and Handle Chart Patterns before Bu

The Head and Shoulders Top is another chart that may indicate a stock has made a top. Usually a Head and Shoulders pattern will have a Head and two Shoulders with a Neckline connecting the bottom of the two Shoulders. The stock price should find support at the Neckline however if it breaks below that support then the stock price could spiral downward. I certainly don’t profess to be an expert in Head and Shoulder formations but here are a few examples.

head and shoulders top

Here is a chart of EBAY which shows a top (Head) being made in late April. Normally a Head and Shoulders pattern has two Shoulders however there appears to be three Shoulders in this case (points A, B and C). Determining exactly where to draw the Neckline can be subjective but for this case I will define it from points D to E. In theory the stock should find support at its Neckline if the price drops after forming the second Shoulder (point B). In this case the price dropped back to the Neckline and then rebounded to form a third Shoulder (point C). EBAY then dropped again and fell below the Neckline and continued in a downtrend until early August.

head and shoulders top

The next example shows a chart of LVCI. The Head develops in mid-July as the stock makes a top. The two Shoulders are defined at points A and B while the Neckline is defined by the line from points C to D. Once again as the stock broke through its support area at the Neckline it continued to drop for several more weeks.

Regards,

Stock Trading Trading for Beginners Articles by the same author * Author: Joe Ross * Futures Spread Trading * Achieving Trading Perfec

Hey Joe!
Do you think adaptation to the realities of the market is the most important thing?

Many times in the past I’ve written about the need to adapt, the need to be able to change your behavior relative to the market because the markets are ever changing.

I’ve stated that mechanical systems may be workable, but for only a short time relative to the life of markets. You must learn to trade what you see and to understand what you see on a chart.

When I first began trading there was no such things as futures contracts for foreign currencies. Why didn’t they exist? Because there was no need for them! In the 1970’s all that changed when the US dollar went off the gold standard and began to float against other currencies. Following that, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began to create currency futures to provide a place where currency traders could hedge the risks associated with dealing in foreign currencies. Some of these risks are direct and some are indirect. Direct risk is involved for those who deal directly in foreign exchange. Indirect risk involves companies who export or import and receive payments or make payments in the currency of another country.

Ever since currency futures were created, they have been in a state of flux. More recently, for purposes of futures trading, currency gyrations have centered on a massive move away from currency futures to more direct trading in the forex markets. Currency futures, while maintaining their volume and open interest figures, are actually less liquid than they had been previously. Volume and open interest do not reveal the picture of what is happening in the currency futures pits. Volume and open interest levels are being maintained by fewer and fewer futures traders.

In the period from 1992 to the present, we’ve witnessed currency futures moving from “red-hot” to “cool” and now hot again insofar as speculators are concerned. Foreign exchange, which in 1992 was one of the hottest plays, first turned dull and then back again to exciting.

That this has happened can be seen in areas of which most futures traders are ignorant. Five years ago foreign currency traders were being paid huge salaries and anyone with a track record could virtually name his price. Following that, currency traders were no longer in great demand. Now, again, there is a huge demand for successful currency traders.

Currency futures are but a small representation of the $1.5 trillion dollar foreign exchange market. Professional currency traders use forex, forwarding contracts, derivatives of all kinds, and the futures pits, to deploy their various trading and hedging strategies. Looking at only the futures is like the blind man trying to tell what an elephant is like by feeling only the tusks.

In past years, foreign exchange desks at banks, insurance companies, brokers, and other institutions were seen closing down and firing hundreds of employees. Today, they are again looking for currency traders.

Discretionary Traders - Don’t Talk About Your Open Positions


Forex Articles » Mental Trading » Discretionary Traders - Don’t Talk About Your Open Positions

Discretionary Traders - Don’t Talk About Your Open Positions


In browsing around the web I often encounter discussions of the merits of a particular trade and opinions about the direction of a market. I know that the traders who voice these opinions have good intentions and much of the discussions could be helpful to the person receiving the information. (Some of these discussions are on our Forum.) However the provider of the opinion must be very careful that he doesn’t start believing too strongly in his position because he has made the mistake of going public with it.

This is an important psychological issue that I seldom see discussed. Taking losses is always difficult and the reluctance to promptly acknowledge that we are on the wrong side of the market is probably the single most costly error a trader can make. Even under the best of conditions we hate to take losses. Publicly advocating a particular trade or the direction of a market just makes being wrong all the more painful and harder to accept. If we make it a policy to go around advocating the merits of our trades it will only make it harder to recognize when we are wrong.

Many years ago when I was a young futures broker at E. F. Hutton and Company, the firm decided that it would be a good idea to send our commodity research analysts on the road whenever they came up with a well researched idea that appeared to have great potential. Let’s assume for a minute that our sugar analyst has decided that sugar is going to make a big move to the upside over the next six months. After publishing his research he would be sent from city to city where he would speak at meetings for brokers and clients suggesting why everyone should be buying sugar. At first the analyst road shows seemed like a great idea. The clients received the benefit of hearing about a well-researched idea straight from the analyst himself and also had the opportunity to ask questions and engage the analyst in a discussion of the details of the sugar market. The clients enjoyed the meetings and a lot of new commodity business was generated as a result.

However, it turns out that the objectivity of the analysts was completely lost after the story had been told and the bullish scenario presented a dozen times or more. The analyst felt obligated to the firm and to the clients. The firm had spent a lot of money to send the analyst on the road and to host these meeting all over the country. As a result of the meetings the clients now knew the analysts by name and his personal and professional reputation was clearly on the line. This analyst was now committed and he was going to be bullish on sugar regardless of what happened in the market or what new information came to light. From the point of the tours onward the analyst would only look for information to support his opinion. To ever admit that he was wrong would be such public humiliation that the analyst would tend to ignore any contrary information and would stick to his original position through thick and thin. We eventually learned that the talented Hutton research analysts did a much better job when they were free to change their minds as new facts were revealed without the pressure and responsibility generated by their repeated espousing of a particular position on a specific trade.

Discretionary traders should learn from this example and avoid discussing their open positions or their opinion about the direction of a market. It will only distort their objectivity and make it harder to take a loss promptly when that is the best course of action. Losses that only we know about are tough enough but losses that everyone knows about become much harder to stomach and we tend to postpone our exits in hope that the market will eventually turn around and prove us right. Remember that the best discretionary traders are usually very neutral about their positions and tend to take their guidance from the price action and the flow of new information. Its OK to listen to others talk about their positions but don’t make it a habit of discussing your open trades. It will only cost you money, especially if you repeat your opinions often enough that you might actually start believing what you are saying.

Fortunately, systematic traders seldom get married to a position. They enjoy the luxury of being able to blame the system if a trade doesn’t work out. Since there is little personal attachment to any trade, the psychological problems of systematic trader are much different than those of discretionary traders. But even systematic traders have their share of psychological problems. Perhaps we can discuss some of these problems in a future Bulletin.

Disgruntled Trading -Trading Plans


The following situation happens quite often to many traders. Look it over and see if it has been happening to you:

You have been faithfully following your trading plan and the rules you’ve set for trading. By following them you are now in a trade that doesn’t look so good. At the same time, by following your trading plan, you see that you’ve missed a beautiful move in a different market, one that could have made you a lot of money.

You are in a bad trade and you’ve missed out on a great trade. You become disgruntled. You think to yourself that your trading plan must not be so great. You think there must be a better methodology that you should use that will prevent this from happening. You think to yourself, "Yes! That’s it, I’ll change the way I do things." So you create a new rule or modify an old one so that such a rule would have let you capture the trade you missed and avoid the one you took. Have you been making this mistake?

Here’s another way it can happen: You are in a trade, and your rules cause you to be stopped out with little or no profit. Shortly after you exit the trade according to plan, prices take off and move to where, had you stayed in, you would have made substantial profits. The move leaves you sitting there thinking you are stupid. You reason that there must be something wrong with the way you do things.

Your rules, your plan, or both must not be right. So you change what you are doing, or make a new rule so that the next time this happens, you won’t be left behind.

You have just abandoned all of the hard work you’ve previously done that enabled you to successfully trade futures. You’ve abandoned your education and learning. You’ve abandoned the wisdom that will enable you to be consistently successful as a trader. You’ve just started trading history, and you are supposed to be trading on the future movement of prices. You are trading what happened, not what will happen. By not being willing to be left behind, you are setting yourself up for being left out.

If you’ve been having thoughts, or have been acting as we’ve just described, you have a terrible problem with greed. Why? Because greed can never get enough. You can’t satisfy greed. Greed wants more, and yet more.

Not every trade is your trade. Not every trade has to work out for you. You have to be satisfied with getting a reasonable share of trades that fit your description of a good trade. Some of those trades will turn out to be great trades, others are good trades, and a certain percentage of your trades will be bad. There’s no way around it.

Not every good trade will turn into a great trade. When you enter a trade according to your rules and trading plan, you have no idea whether or not it will turn out to be a good trade, much less a great trade. The reality of trading is that, try as you might, you cannot know the future.

Whenever we miss a big move and then try to find some pattern, indicator, rationale, or modification to make to what we are doing so that the next time we will not miss the "big" move, it is a part of the hunt for something magic ¾ a continuation of our quest for the holy grail of trading.

What a terrible mistake to allow yourself to make. Winning as a trader consists of making some small profits and some larger profits on a regular basis. Obviously, there will be some losses. We regularly want to keep losses small, but there are times when a loss will get away from us and turn out to be bigger than desired.

If adversity causes you to become disgruntled, then you really need to examine your thinking and your approach to trading. Your trading plan must allow for disappointment and loss.

You’ve got to believe in what you are doing and be able to trade from the knowledge that when you follow your rules and your plan, you will make money from your trading.
When you become disgruntled and begin to change your plan, your rules, or both, you are setting yourself up for almost certain failure and the worst thing that can happen to a trader ¾ you will lose the courage of your convictions. Without it you cannot trade with any level of confidence.

This is why we encourage you to write out the reasons and rationale for every trade you make, even if you have to do it after you have completed the trade. You must develop a keen recognition of the trades that are your trades. Write out your trading plan every day and for every trade you intend to make. If you did not have time to plan every trade, be sure to review those you did make without pre-planning. Then you can go back over your trading and be able to see why and when you are successful.

Reminder: Here are some steps to take before the market opens.

· View major formations on the charts of those futures you intend to trade. View potential congestion areas, get the big picture from the longer term charts.

· Write down all potential entries as you see them on the chart.

You need to go through this exercise every day that you trade. This takes discipline. However, doing so will help you develop the kinds of habits that will mold you into a great trader.

If you are too busy to be disciplined, then you are too busy to trade. If you don’t discipline yourself, you will soon disappear from the trading scene.

Friday, June 12, 2009

FX Trading Systems Which Work

1. Trading systems
There are essentially two types of systems which traders employ. These are:

a. Price following systems
b. Price prediction systems

Let’s examine each one briefly.

Price following systems

These are systems which rely on momentum indicators, oscillators and averaging methods to simply follow the market in the direction in which it is moving. The simplest of these is to find a suitable moving average (MA) and trade in the direction the MA is pointing, with the price on the correct side of that average.

One can add to that a whole variety of other indicators such as MACD, Stochastics, RSI and Bollinger Bands etc. One charting package I use has 29 different indicators, leading to an overload of endless possible combinations to use. Furthermore, there are about 20 different possible time frames to study. Its not hard to see why traders end up with the commonly know “paralysis of analysis” which is recognized by the comatose mouse hand and glazed eyes of someone sitting in front of the screen for 12 hours without taking a trade.

They key is to keep it simple. Decide on the time from you choose to trade from (scalpers may prefer 5 minute or 15 minute charts, whereas session/day traders may prefer 1 hour, 4 hour of day charts) and look for a very simple system which combines no more than 2 or 3 indicators. Such systems may also incorporate simple trend line studies, with the trade direction following the prevailing straight line trend.

When the signals are given by your system, take your trades confidently and consistently. Do not abandon your method and start searching for another after the first loss.

Price Prediction systems

These are systems which are generally longer term systems, applied to session, day or longer periods. They involve deciding the overall direction of the currency pair over a longer time frame and then trading a simple “buy on dips” or “sell on rallies” approach, depending on the direction you have decided on. There are various tools to help the strategy trader, such as horizontal lines, trend lines, Fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages and so on. These will help to a) identify the direction of trade, b) identify a logical entry point and c) identify a logical exit point. These trades can then be programmed into the dealing software and left to take care of themselves, allowing the trader spend his time doing other things. This form of trading requires more skill and experience, but this can be learned with time and practice.

Essentially, price following systems generally tend to be shorter term “scalping” type systems, which involve screen watching for a large part of each day. Price prediction systems tend to involve strategies lasting 8 hours up to several days and allow the trader to get away from the screen and enjoy more free time.

Everyone has their preference but I have found from my own experience and observations that intense screen watching cannot be sustained for very long by most traders, before burning out after several weeks or months. You can recognize these traders immediately by their bagged eyes, short tempers and lack of social skills.

2. Managing your funds
Whilst most traders can invent or learn a reasonable trading system to suit their styles of trading, many cannot manage their account safely enough to prevent large losses and the dreaded margin call. Even the some best traders in the World suffer from temporary lack of sanity in this area (including “yours truly”). Interesting case histories are described, for example, in Jack Schwager’s book “Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders”

There are three simple rules which can be applied here:

a) Never leverage over 10:1 and as your account grows larger, reduce this to below 5:1
b) Never risk more than 5% of your equity on a given day, and as your account grows, reduce this to less than 2%
c) Never take a trade where you are risking more than 50% of the projected gains from the trade with your stop loss. In other words, the Win/Lose ratio (profit target in pips/stop loss in pips) should be 2:1 or higher.

Following these simple rules, even with a half baked trading system, will ensure that you can lose 2 out of every 3 trades and still break even on your account.

3. Trader Psychology
All humans are subject to two (often opposing) forces – the mind and the emotions. The key to successful trading psychology is to prevent your emotions from dominating your mind.

The emotions you will experience will fluctuate wildly from fear to greed, to self-doubt and elation. These are all the enemy of the trader and need to be tempered by clear, objective and logical thinking.

Work out your trading strategy based on your previously defined system. Apply the system with safe account management rules, and shut out the emotional noise which will attempt to convince you to close early, over leverage, risk too much, risk too little etc.

4. Summary
It is clear that the best traders aim for small and consistent gains without seeking “the latest” system to produce enormous profits. There simply are no such systems which work reliably day in and day out. Keep your money management tight and keep your emotions in check and you should succeed.

Finally – it is well worth the money spent on good education. Attend a seminar by a truly active trader and teacher, and buy lots of books on the subject. Do not think you can go from “zero to hero” in the FX market without investing time, effort and money in learning from experienced players. The money you might save initially will probably be lost many times over as the market works you over later.

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